So i have been doing CC and AV everyday for the last 2 weeks

[Rogue]

1. Farming AV non-stop does not improve your chances of getting said item. It is random probability, and as such, the length of time you spend going for said item will have no effect on your success. Drop rates are not balanced for the individual player, but for the entire playerbase. So out of 100 runs from the whole server, 3 will result in drops. You running it 500 times does not increase your chances, technically speaking. It *might* increase your chances, but then again it might increase someone else's chances. This isn't a console game, drop rates aren't individual rates, but server rates. Keep this in mind.

are you serious? i suggest you think about this a little longer..

[laias]

all i can say is that its quite fustrating running AV from 2pm est till 1am east everyday for 3 weeks not and have not seen a single body drop. i dont have a problem with hard to get gear or things you have to work for. i think thats what keeps people playing the game. that being said, it can be DAMN annoying ha.

[RathSkybreaker]

4 drops 3 runs >_>

[Zezlar]

Spammed the hell out of both raids today (like always) without our main tanks. Out of about 12 runs, we had 3 miserable runs. Three pieces of Darklight dropped. Guess what raids they all dropped on?

Yup, that's right. The horrible runs. This system is shot.

On a side note: Full DD Cuirass Set for me xD

[Lux_Rayna]

are you serious? i suggest you think about this a little longer..

I am serious. But its because ppl believe the opposite that they get suckered into things like casinos and lotteries. I can easily explain why it doesn't improve your chances: you are not playing by yourself.

Let's take a lottery for example. Ppl believe that if you buy a bunch of tickets, you have a higher chance of winning. True and false. For every ticket you buy, there's another person buying a lottery ticket..heck there are probably another 3 or 4 ppl buying a ticket. While statistically you have a higher chance than any other individual (in terms of probability), the increase of participants negates your probability of winning vs anyone else winning. Hard to explain in words so lets use numbers.

Take a lottery, for example. What would happen if, for every ticket you buy, 5 other ppl bought a ticket?

You buy 1 ticket. 5 other guys buy 1 ticket. 6 tickets total, your probability of winning is 1/6.

You buy 5 tickets. 25 other guys buy 1 ticket. 30 tickets total, your probability of winning is 1/6.

You buy 20 tickets. 100 other guys buy 1 ticket. 120 tickets total, your probability of winning is 1/6.

Get it now? Statistically, more attempts does not mean you have a higher chance of success. It depends on how many other guys are jumping in on the pool for every attempt you make. How many runs do you think happens in the time it takes for you to do one? Take a guess. Just think about it. What if the number of runs increased for every attempt you did? Your chances would actually start decreasing.

Let's go back to the lottery example. Let's say 5 more ppl buy a ticket than last time, for every ticket you buy.

You buy 5 tickets, (5+10+15+20+25) 75 other guys buy a ticket. 80 tickets total, your chances are 5/80, or 1/16

See how that compares to the above example? A lot worse right? What if you bought 1 ticket? It would be 5 tickets total, so your chances would be 1/5. Much better yeah?

Its important to remember that this was just an exercise in theoretical probability. The point was that more attempts =/= higher success rate. That entirely depends on how many attempts go on around you for every attempt you add to the pool. Of course it won't conspire against you like in my examples, but at times it just might. Theoretically its possible that less attempts = higher percentage chance of winning. Thats the problem with probability, *anything* can happen based on what everyone else decides to do. So really, I suggest you think about it a little longer. Three things can happen based on increasing your output:

1) Chances increase
2) Chances decrease
3) Chances stay the same

Your chances entirely depend on what everyone else is doing at the time. Sure more attempts is never a bad idea, but it doesn't mean it will really help you in practical terms.

[Peptaru]

I missed the post where it says that only so many of these things can drop per server, per day or w/e.

[Tutu]

Luck Based and some even just went in onces and get their DL lol ...

Darklight is currently the best gear in the game and has definitely given people something to work for. At least they drop into the loot list so we can pass them to people who can use them (unlike primal weapons).

Being luck based is rough, especially when the stars never align for you. But there is something to be said for the joy of finally getting the piece you want. And if the drop rates were higher then pretty soon most people would be running around in full Darklight gear and there would be nothing special about it.

Who knows what the timers are like. But we got the Heavy Darklight Flanchard on our very first Cutter's Cry win, and there were a lot of other parties there at the time. Beginner's luck?

[fusional]

Carraway has crunched the numbers for our LS thus far, and with a fairly large sample size his fuzzy napkin math shows we're averaging a 0.026% drop rate per chest.

"working as intended"

[Lux_Rayna]

I missed the post where it says that only so many of these things can drop per server, per day or w/e.

Thats not what I said. I'm saying that probability is misleading, because most ppl tend to think of it as: "I have a 3% chance of getting this item". What they forget is that it also means: "3% of the attempts to get this item will succeed". If you are the only actor, 3% is a practical possibility. If there are thousands of other players acting with you, 3% in practically impossible unless you just happen to be lucky. Cuz now instead of there being only the attempts you make, there are all the attempts all the other ppl make. Out of 10000 attempts total, 3% would mean 300 drops. Those 300 drops can distribute any way they feel like it. It could all go to 20 ppl, 200 ppl, or 150 ppl. What about everyone else? They're at 0% success rate.

This is what I mean. 3% is not necessarily 3% practically speaking. And when I say practically, I mean realistically. Now if one person did enough runs, for a long enough time, theoretically he'd hit that 3% mark eventually. But we are human beings with lives, and a limited amount of time. That means if the pool got large enough, its more or less impossible for some ppl.

In other words, its like flipping a coin. Let's say we take turns flipping. Theoretically it will land on heads 50% of the time. But its quite possible that every single time I flipped the coin, it landed on tails, and every time you flipped the coin, it landed on heads. Now if I ask you what your success rate is for flipping heads, it would 100%: twice the odds. If you asked me, it would be 0%.

A primal drop is the same thing. SE sets a drop rate for the server. That means its entirely possible for an indivdual to come up on the losing end every single time.

[Asiaine]

Take a lottery, for example. What would happen if, for every ticket you buy, 5 other ppl bought a ticket?

The premise of the argument is incorrect. There is no guarantee that for every ticket you buy 5 other people bought a ticket.

Proof: If 10 people choose to buy a ticket at the last moment, how can they guarantee there are 50 other people doing the same? And if those 10 people choose not to at the last second, how can they guarantee the other 50 choose to do the same?

You buy 1 ticket. 5 other guys buy 1 ticket. 6 tickets total, your probability of winning is 1/6.

I think you are describing a 'raffle' system, not a 'lottery' system.

Lottery: You would pick numbers (say 5, from 1-100). Then 5 random numbers are rolled by a machine. If your 5 matches, you win. It is independent if 1 or 1 million people play, your odds of matching stay the same.

Raffle: Your ticket is put into a hat with a bunch of other people's tickets. Then one is drawn. If its yours, you win. The more people play (with one ticket per person), the less your odds are.


Now, your entire argument is based on the premise that the loot/drop system is based on a raffle, rather than pure lottery (or randomness). I do not know if this is true or not, but I have not seen anything that suggests this.

My only understanding on this (and every other drop mechanism I've seen here), it is pure randomness. If it is not (but based on a pool/raffle system) then that would be an interesting idea.