Astro changes 5.1

**LariaKirin** · 11-10-2019 04:23 AM

Originally Posted by MitsukiKimura

You can but it's not always gonna happen.

It's not always going to happen. It's going to happen 80% of the time.

Originally Posted by MitsukiKimura

Sometimes you'll get stuck drawing same multiple seals in a row wasting your redraw attempts. You're pretty much getting 5% most of the time.

20% of the time is not most of the time.

**Crushnight** · 11-10-2019 05:57 AM

Originally Posted by LariaKirin

Considering you get 4 Redraws per Divination window, why would you not use them to raise your probability of a 3 seal divination to 80%?

Actually you only get a 32% chance to have 3 seal divination in 3 draws with using redraw on 2nd and 3rd draw, redrawing only changes the odds once, anytime after the 1st doesn't increase your odds of getting the correct seal as the probability remains the same.

1 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 0.22(my bad math brain pooped today not 24% but 22%) - base probability you get what you want with no interference
1 x 4/5 x 2/5 = 0.32 - the probability of getting what you want with redraw on both the 2nd and 3rd draw

and the moment you redraw is the moment you are fishing the very reason the devs cited for the card system change

**LariaKirin** · 11-10-2019 07:49 AM

Originally Posted by Crushnight

Actually you only get a 32% chance to have 3 seal divination in 3 draws with using redraw on 2nd and 3rd draw, redrawing only changes the odds once, anytime after the 1st doesn't increase your odds of getting the correct seal as the probability remains the same.

1 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 0.22(my bad math brain pooped today not 24% but 22%) - base probability you get what you want with no interference
1 x 4/5 x 2/5 = 0.32 - the probability of getting what you want with redraw on both the 2nd and 3rd draw

and the moment you redraw is the moment you are fishing the very reason the devs cited for the card system change

That is not how probability works.

1) When looking for the 2nd seal, you have 2 seals you don't need and 4 seals you need. That means a Draw has a 2/3 probability to give you what you want. A Redraw has a 4/5 probability to give you what you want.

In order to use a Redraw, you have to FAIL a Draw. You have to calculate it as a chain of probabilities. You either succeed with the 2/3 or you fail (1/3 of the time) and succeed with the 4/5.
If you do "Draw + Redraw", then your probability to get a different seal is 2/3 (succeed Draw) + 1/3 (fail Draw) * 4/5 (succeed Redraw) = 14/15 = 0.9333 = 93.33%.

2) As for the 3rd seal, you have 4 seals you don't need and 2 seals you need. That means a Draw has a 1/3 probability to give you what you want. A Redraw has a 2/5 probability to give you what you want.

The same logic applies. You either succeed with the 1/3 or you fail (2/3 of the time) and succeed with the 2/5. That is 1/3 (succeed Draw) + 2/3 (fail Draw) * 2/5 (succeed Redraw) = 9/15 = 0.600 (60%).

Putting both together, with a strategy of Draw (1st seal), Draw + Redraw (2nd seal), Draw + Redraw (3rd seal), your overall probability for a 3 seal Divination is 14/15 * 3/5 = 42/75 = 0.56 (56%)
We have one more Draw and 2 more Redraws that we have not considered in the Divination window.

Long story short, you can bring your overall probability over 80% by making calculated decisions about your Draws/Redraws.

If anyone is interested in something more in-depth, just drop a DM.

**MitsukiKimura** · 11-10-2019 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by LariaKirin

It's not always going to happen. It's going to happen 80% of the time.

20% of the time is not most of the time.

I'd like to differ on my experiences with my opener and also it's not rewarding enough for me to go out of my way for that 1% extra damage when I'm having to throw cards constantly during Sleeve draw with light speed. Increase the buff and make the 3rd different seal more rewarding. Though I'm not here to calculate RNG experiences.

**LariaKirin** · 11-11-2019 07:46 PM

Originally Posted by MitsukiKimura

I'd like to differ on my experiences with my opener and also it's not rewarding enough for me to go out of my way for that 1% extra damage when I'm having to throw cards constantly during Sleeve draw with light speed. Increase the buff and make the 3rd different seal more rewarding. Though I'm not here to calculate RNG experiences.

I'm talking about Divination windows, not the opener. The goal of the opener is not to get a 3 seal Divination, it's to get Divination out in time in order to get the most out of everybody's openers.

**MitsukiKimura** · 11-11-2019 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by LariaKirin

I'm talking about Divination windows, not the opener. The goal of the opener is not to get a 3 seal Divination, it's to get Divination out in time in order to get the most out of everybody's openers.

Shouldn't it be both? Obviously you want 3 seals for that 6% damage boost but RNG can still be your worse enemy. Can't tell you how many melee cards I've drawn and I'm not even concerned with divination or the seal issue. I'm only here to make my voice known about the depressing card system AST has now. Rest of the stuff doesn't bother me but this card system has never made so disappointed at it until this change.

**Side-Eye** · 11-14-2019 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by Crushnight

and the moment you redraw is the moment you are fishing the very reason the devs cited for the card system change

THIS ---------- ^

so very much this.

It would be like telling us they were doing away with some abilities because of button bloat, and then dividing Draw and Play into two different buttons.

Oh i oop..

**Lodi** · 11-14-2019 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by Side-Eye

THIS ---------- ^

so very much this.

It would be like telling us they were doing away with some abilities because of button bloat, and then dividing Draw and Play into two different buttons.

Oh i oop..

SE: *creates cards and the ability to redraw them*
Also SE: Guys please stop fishing
Also also SE: *gives Redraw three charges*
Also also also SE: *creates a skill that spawns three cards over 30s*
Also also also also SE: *adds a skill to safely convert unwanted cards and make fishing even easier*
Also also also also also SE: *makes a skill that represents half of an AST's buffs and requires fishing to use optimally*

**LariaKirin** · 11-14-2019 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by MitsukiKimura

Shouldn't it be both? Obviously you want 3 seals for that 6% damage boost but RNG can still be your worse enemy. Can't tell you how many melee cards I've drawn and I'm not even concerned with divination or the seal issue. I'm only here to make my voice known about the depressing card system AST has now. Rest of the stuff doesn't bother me but this card system has never made so disappointed at it until this change.

Probability dictates that 5% is your most likely outcome. If you use a total of 2 Redraws, you're at 56% of a 6% Divination. But all this is secondary.

Your number one priority is getting the Divination out in time, regardless of seals. This is because party buffs stack with each other and the opener is the biggest burst you will have in the entire fight.

**MitsukiKimura** · 11-16-2019 08:09 PM

Originally Posted by LariaKirin

Probability dictates that 5% is your most likely outcome. If you use a total of 2 Redraws, you're at 56% of a 6% Divination. But all this is secondary.

Your number one priority is getting the Divination out in time, regardless of seals. This is because party buffs stack with each other and the opener is the biggest burst you will have in the entire fight.

I'm aware of how to play my class. Hopefully they'll look at the card system in the coming future.

Thread: Astro changes 5.1

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