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  1. #261
    Player
    EllieShadeflare's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Posts
    332
    Character
    Elatus Shadeflare
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Black Mage Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Ogulbuk View Post
    Cant wait to see people in this thread react to i290 store bought grey gear once Stormblood comes out.
    This is "Missed the Point" the post. Stormblood is supposed to be when our gear becomes outdated, not current content in the final patch.
    (12)

  2. #262
    Player
    Pomelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    1,518
    Character
    Pomelo Elmbrook
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Astrologian Lv 90
    I was a bit shocked this morning but now i'm just neutral, this content isn't for me I'll just continue doing stuff i like.
    (3)

  3. #263
    Player
    Reinha's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    3,437
    Character
    Reinha Sorrowmoon
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Reaper Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallera View Post
    The chance of the drop being my main is 1/13.
    The chance that it will drop to me is 1/72 (its really the number of participants, but from what im hearing this is no low manning affair.)
    making the chance that I get the drop for my main 1/936
    and that's assuming the fight occurs every time and the weapon drops every time. which may not be true.
    If the success % is p and we want to calculate the chance of k successes in n trials, we can use the probability mass function for the binomial distribution. If k = 0 (meaning no successes) it's reduced to the following formula:

    (1 - p)^n

    To find the chance of any amount of successes higher than zero (previous event's complement), i.e. the chance of at least one weapon drop, we use the formula

    1 - (1 - p)^n

    To put this in to perspective, the chance that a weapon drops for your main job and you win the roll within 1000 runs where the rare fight is beaten is

    1 - (1 - 1/936)^1000
    = 1 - 0.9989316239^1000
    = 1 - 0.3433698199
    = 0.6566301801
    = 66%

    So even within 1000 runs where the rare fight spawned and was successfully beaten only about 2 out of 3 people get at least 1 weapon for their main job. It's still not guaranteed even with a huge amount of grinding. The chance for you getting any weapon(s) within 200 runs is

    1 - (1 - 1/72)^200
    = 1 - 0.9861111111^200
    = 1 - 0.0609776182
    = 0.9390223818
    = 94%

    So it seems that getting a weapon for any job seems possible if one puts in the grind and the rare events happen and are beaten fairly regularly, but to get a decent chance for your chosen main job's weapon would take more runs than you could possibly do before Stormblood. Diadem is in no way guaranteed to drop loot that invalidates the relic grind. I'd be happy for any corrections if I have happened to make a mistake.
    (4)
    Last edited by Reinha; 03-09-2017 at 11:34 PM.

  4. #264
    Player
    Lunafreya's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    714
    Character
    Ellia Lombardia
    World
    Lamia
    Main Class
    Dancer Lv 90
    I'm extremely upset about this having allocated my ast relic over the weekend to hit the acc cap with all heaven eye v melds and allocating the spell speed to 95 as well. Wow, I wasted my lore and want to quit.

    I'm not entirely serious about quitting btw.... just shocked.
    (3)

  5. #265
    Player
    Stormrider's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    668
    Character
    Storm Rider
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Miner Lv 60
    Why are people shocked? The only thing that shocks me is that the gear isn't 280 random stat as well. This has been repeated with hunts and first diadem to a degree. The content isn't that good and a large percentage wouldn't do it. So how do you make people do content no one wanted and you wasted money on? Put BiS or almost BiS gear. Then make it kind of grindy and random.
    (0)

  6. #266
    Player
    Ogulbuk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    329
    Character
    Cebastian Delpy
    World
    Behemoth
    Main Class
    Dragoon Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by EllieShadeflare View Post
    This is "Missed the Point" the post. Stormblood is supposed to be when our gear becomes outdated, not current content in the final patch.
    Gear gets outdated almost every patch.

    Edit: and face it, lots of people here WILL do the same as soon as Stormblood comes out.
    (0)
    Last edited by Ogulbuk; 03-09-2017 at 11:27 PM.

  7. #267
    Player
    EllieShadeflare's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Posts
    332
    Character
    Elatus Shadeflare
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Black Mage Lv 80
    Yeah, in a 2 patch cycle! Not in the hotfixes, and second halves of patches.
    (1)

  8. #268
    Player
    Neophyte's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    940
    Character
    Mim Silmaril
    World
    Phoenix
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Ogulbuk View Post
    Cant wait to see people in this thread react to i290 store bought grey gear once Stormblood comes out.
    They will react reasonable, because that is a reasonable and expected thing.

    It's not reasonable to give out a 280 weapon 3 months before that, just after finishing the relic and before remove of the savage lockout.

    No one expected that, it's unreasonable to implement it now. That's why people complain.

    Why do you think people complained not that much about crafted 220 gear, although it invalidated savage 210 gear?
    Because the raid tier was finished, open, nerfed and not current anymore.
    (10)
    Last edited by Neophyte; 03-09-2017 at 11:38 PM.

  9. #269
    Player
    Remedi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    2,554
    Character
    Remedi Maxwell
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Goldsmith Lv 90
    on a different note, not sure if anyone said this but as a wild guess this might be a prewiew of how the relics will drop in SB

    Maybe we should get some datas on what boss dropped what weapons to be 100% sure it's a total RNG
    (0)

  10. #270
    Player
    Laerad3993's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    472
    Character
    Lu Delilas
    World
    Behemoth
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 60
    What a lovely surprise. Hell I could have just waited it out instead of wasting all that time for nothing. Time to go back to logging in for airships only till expansion again. Thanks for the "fun"!
    (1)

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