I was a bit shocked this morning but now i'm just neutral, this content isn't for me I'll just continue doing stuff i like.
If the success % is p and we want to calculate the chance of k successes in n trials, we can use the probability mass function for the binomial distribution. If k = 0 (meaning no successes) it's reduced to the following formula:The chance of the drop being my main is 1/13.
The chance that it will drop to me is 1/72 (its really the number of participants, but from what im hearing this is no low manning affair.)
making the chance that I get the drop for my main 1/936
and that's assuming the fight occurs every time and the weapon drops every time. which may not be true.
(1 - p)^n
To find the chance of any amount of successes higher than zero (previous event's complement), i.e. the chance of at least one weapon drop, we use the formula
1 - (1 - p)^n
To put this in to perspective, the chance that a weapon drops for your main job and you win the roll within 1000 runs where the rare fight is beaten is
1 - (1 - 1/936)^1000
= 1 - 0.9989316239^1000
= 1 - 0.3433698199
= 0.6566301801
= 66%
So even within 1000 runs where the rare fight spawned and was successfully beaten only about 2 out of 3 people get at least 1 weapon for their main job. It's still not guaranteed even with a huge amount of grinding. The chance for you getting any weapon(s) within 200 runs is
1 - (1 - 1/72)^200
= 1 - 0.9861111111^200
= 1 - 0.0609776182
= 0.9390223818
= 94%
So it seems that getting a weapon for any job seems possible if one puts in the grind and the rare events happen and are beaten fairly regularly, but to get a decent chance for your chosen main job's weapon would take more runs than you could possibly do before Stormblood. Diadem is in no way guaranteed to drop loot that invalidates the relic grind. I'd be happy for any corrections if I have happened to make a mistake.
Last edited by Reinha; 03-09-2017 at 11:34 PM.
I'm extremely upset about this having allocated my ast relic over the weekend to hit the acc cap with all heaven eye v melds and allocating the spell speed to 95 as well. Wow, I wasted my lore and want to quit.
I'm not entirely serious about quitting btw.... just shocked.
Why are people shocked? The only thing that shocks me is that the gear isn't 280 random stat as well. This has been repeated with hunts and first diadem to a degree. The content isn't that good and a large percentage wouldn't do it. So how do you make people do content no one wanted and you wasted money on? Put BiS or almost BiS gear. Then make it kind of grindy and random.
Gear gets outdated almost every patch.
Edit: and face it, lots of people here WILL do the same as soon as Stormblood comes out.
Last edited by Ogulbuk; 03-09-2017 at 11:27 PM.
Yeah, in a 2 patch cycle! Not in the hotfixes, and second halves of patches.
They will react reasonable, because that is a reasonable and expected thing.
It's not reasonable to give out a 280 weapon 3 months before that, just after finishing the relic and before remove of the savage lockout.
No one expected that, it's unreasonable to implement it now. That's why people complain.
Why do you think people complained not that much about crafted 220 gear, although it invalidated savage 210 gear?
Because the raid tier was finished, open, nerfed and not current anymore.
Last edited by Neophyte; 03-09-2017 at 11:38 PM.
on a different note, not sure if anyone said this but as a wild guess this might be a prewiew of how the relics will drop in SB
Maybe we should get some datas on what boss dropped what weapons to be 100% sure it's a total RNG
What a lovely surprise. Hell I could have just waited it out instead of wasting all that time for nothing. Time to go back to logging in for airships only till expansion again. Thanks for the "fun"!
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