Odds of getting G/E Proces in L58 and 2-Star L60 recipes

[Silverbane]

I tracked the occurance of Good/Excellent conditions on a Level 58 35 durability recipe (Adamantite Nugget) and a L60 2-Star 70 durability recipe (Adamantite Ingots).
I then did an experiment on a 2-Star Level 60 70 durability craft.

For Adamantite Nuggets, out of 665 applicable steps, I counted 94 Good or Excellent conditions.
For Adamantite Ingots, out of 336 applicable steps, I counted 29 Good or Excellent conditions. See update below.
Applicable steps excludes the last step.

The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L58 d35 recipe seems to be about 1 in 7 (14.14%).
The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.5 (8.63%). See update below.

Based on the sample sizes, the 93% (2 standard deviation) confidence interval is:

For L58: 14.14% +/- 2.45%
For L60 2-Star: 8.63% +/- 2.78%

I will try to get more samples to narrow the confidence interval. Feel free to submit your experiences.

Update: We did some more L60 2-Star, with 404 opportunities for G/E condition, and had 38 occur.
The percentage of occurrence in mats was about 9.43%, and the percentage in finished tools was 9.34%

Adding these samples to the previous once, we get:
The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.0 (9.05%).

Confidence Interval for L60 2-Star proc odds: 9.05% +/- 2.05%

[Katlyna]

The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.5 (8.63%).

MMM wow I didn't think it was that much worse for two star. I should count off my goods/excellent's next week for comparison.

[dspguy]

I'm almost surprised it is upwards of 8.5%. Most of my 2-star synths are between 28-30 steps, and I would have pegged the rate as 1/30 myself. However, I put a lot of stock in someone actually measuring the steps per good over long intervals. Get more samples. Maybe I'll post my own next time I make some 2-star stuff to add to yours.

[Caimie_Tsukino]

Thank you so much for this data! It's good to have this data, and know what to expect in 2 star crafting!

[Ohiuu]

Thumbs up for the initiative. A bigger sample size would be awesome if you have some time to kill but this is good to know.

[Hennessy]

I don't know if it's just me but does anyone else feel like the actual 2 star gear crafts have even less good and excellent procs than the 2 star submats crafts? Any way OP can maybe test those as well?

[Silverbane]

I don't know if it's just me but does anyone else feel like the actual 2 star gear crafts have even less good and excellent procs than the 2 star submats crafts? Any way OP can maybe test those as well?

We'll be crafting 2-Stars again this weekend (after the red scrip reset ) so we'll try to remember to do more tracking, and specifically to track G/E occurrences in 2-star gear crafts separately from G/E occurrences in 2-star mat crafts. I'll update the thread accordingly.

"Science!" -- Thomas Dolby

[Hennessy]

We'll be crafting 2-Stars again this weekend (after the red scrip reset ) so we'll try to remember to do more tracking, and specifically to track G/E occurrences in 2-star gear crafts separately from G/E occurrences in 2-star mat crafts. I'll update the thread accordingly.

"Science!" -- Thomas Dolby

Haha nice, and thanks! I think what you're doing is great btw =)

[Silverbane]

I've updated the OP with additional data from further 2-star crafting.

[Hennessy]

I've updated the OP with additional data from further 2-star crafting.

Ahh okay so they seem to be the same for 2 star mats and finished items. Thanks for your work! =)