Many people cheating, automated bot to farm drops to synth spheres for Escutcheon

[Nyarlko]

All these calculations assume ZERO breaks which is impossible, you will break some. So the projections are still low. It all depends what cards actually do in todays update. The cards may drastically change calculations.

OK, so if we're aiming for precision, my projections leave out breaks AND HQs. I don't have any idea on what either rate is, so I can't include them. Given that both break/HQ rates will be the same across paths for the most part (I think,) that only affects the final cost number and shouldn't skew any of the general trends among what I've laid out. If break rates change based on variables like step#, tier of sphere, tier of chain, etc., then I imagine that it would point us even more towards the lower cost, lower-tier focused options, like what I said earlier. Don't think I said anything about these being complete cost quotes. ^^;; Estimates are estimates, and can definitely be refined further. Everything I'm doing so far is already stated to be disregarding sphere cost in the base projections, (since we're talking about farming them ourselves and not buying,) so since I'm already assuming that sphere cost is 0g in the beginning, cards won't really affect that portion of the projections even if they crap out a stack of spheres per success. The only cost for spheres anywhere in my math is for the associated crystals used to desynth them and chain them.

If theyre seriously dumb enough to make stackable sphere cards with higher than 1% drop rate on things that aren't apex mobs (a lot of qualifiers there) shield becomes free. Catalyst is negligible if that happens.

I'm not sure that up to 267mil in catalyst costs alone (baseline, no HQs/breaks included) can be called "negligible" even if you're gilcapped. :|

[VoiceMemo]

OK, so if we're aiming for precision, my projections leave out breaks AND HQs. I don't have any idea on what either rate is, so I can't include them. Given that both break/HQ rates will be the same across paths for the most part (I think,) that only affects the final cost number and shouldn't skew any of the general trends among what I've laid out. If break rates change based on variables like step#, tier of sphere, tier of chain, etc., then I imagine that it would point us even more towards the lower cost, lower-tier focused options, like what I said earlier. Don't think I said anything about these being complete cost quotes. ^^;; Estimates are estimates, and can definitely be refined further. Everything I'm doing so far is already stated to be disregarding sphere cost in the base projections, (since we're talking about farming them ourselves and not buying,) so since I'm already assuming that sphere cost is 0g in the beginning, cards won't really affect that portion of the projections even if they crap out a stack of spheres per success. The only cost for spheres anywhere in my math is for the associated crystals used to desynth them and chain them.



I'm not sure that up to 267mil in catalyst costs alone (baseline, no HQs/breaks included) can be called "negligible" even if you're gilcapped. :|

That's why my estimation of 130m with 6 step skillchain(double light or dark) is likely more accurate since I do account for breaks and hqs in my data collection. I have the total spirit gained, divided by how many sets I've attempted, giving me the AVERAGE spirit/set, which I then use in the 100k spirit/average equation giving me the number of projected sets will take to complete. Based on the number of sets I then multiply by each catalyst cost giving me my 130m projection.

Cost wise yes likely T1 To T2 is best cost/set ratio, BUT that all depends on today's update. They really should give more spirit for the T4(dark/light) than normal, else there is no real incentive to do them.

Current ratios
T1s, account for 2.47% of total cost
T2s, account for 23.40% of total cost
and
T3s, account for 74.13% of total cost

so yes cost wise using only T1, T2s make sense, but I still have to make calculations on how many sets this would take by filtering my data without T3s.

I filtered my data with only T1 T2s and would take 4,688 sets at a total cost of around 50m.
So it is cheaper but it's 1,467 sets more. Total orb wise that's 19,326 orbs(6 step) vs 23,440 orbs(5 step)

[Nyarlko]

That's why my estimation of 130m with 6 step skillchain(double light or dark) is likely more accurate since I do account for breaks and hqs in my data collection. I have the total spirit gained, divided by how many sets I've attempted, giving me the AVERAGE spirit/set, which I then use in the 100k spirit/average equation giving me the number of projected sets will take to complete. Based on the number of sets I then multiply by each catalyst cost giving me my 130m projection.

Cost wise yes likely T1 To T2 is best cost/set ratio, BUT that all depends on today's update. They really should give more spirit for the T4(dark/light) than normal, else there is no real incentive to do them.

Current ratios
T1s, account for 2.47% of total cost
T2s, account for 23.40% of total cost
and
T3s, account for 74.13% of total cost

so yes cost wise using only T1, T2s make sense, but I still have to make calculations on how many sets this would take by filtering my data without T3s.

I filtered my data with only T1 T2s and would take 4,688 sets at a total cost of around 50m.
So it is cheaper but it's 1,467 sets more. Total orb wise that's 19,326 orbs(6 step) vs 23,440 orbs(5 step)

My numbers are intended as a baseline. Breaks will drive them up, HQs will drive them down, but until someone has a solid dataset per variable, I wouldn't want to try to shoehorn small dataset based guesstimates or wild assertions into them, which is the best I've encountered from others so far.. :/ With what you have recorded, can you be certain about the break rate for a T2-orb used as 1st, 3rd, or 5th? How about the HQ rate for a T3-orb used 3rd or 6th? Can we be certain that HQ/break rate(s) do or don't depend on any of the possible variables? Not being facetious btw. I'm saying that I want those answers before doing a flawed deep analysis vs working on a welldone baseline that still has declared undetermined variables. (I hope I'm not being confusing. ;;>_>)

There has been not a peep made pre-patch of any changes being made to spirit values, so I'm doubtful that'll happen today. T3 orbs have always felt to me like they're intended to be a "time shortcut for the rich" not required usage items.

[VoiceMemo]

Initial evaluation of the new cards for spheres is not promising, mobs take longer to kill, drop rate is low even with TH. Synth/Break/HQ rate seem about same, which means that the old items would still be better to farm for spheres/time.

Which means that it just will give those that bot another market to farm/exploit. As I predicted.

[Halley]

Initial evaluation of the new cards for spheres is not promising, mobs take longer to kill, drop rate is low even with TH. Synth/Break/HQ rate seem about same, which means that the old items would still be better to farm for spheres/time.

Which means that it just will give those that bot another market to farm/exploit. As I predicted.

Obviously.

If theyre seriously dumb enough to make stackable sphere cards with higher than 1% drop rate on things that aren't apex mobs (a lot of qualifiers there) shield becomes free.

stackable desynthable cards that bots can go bananas on.

[VoiceMemo]

Once one bot is gone from P mines, another appears, likely same person with another bought account. There is no way to win, the cards take longer to farm, have about same break rate, so spheres/time is less. SE please consider making cards create 2 spheres at least instead of 1 per synth.

PLEASE SE PLEASE I'm BEGGING YOU BAN BOTS FASTER. I'm on the verge of retiring from the game over this.

[Lunatone]

Waiting on Nya's ban theory.

[Halley]

I'm on the verge of retiring from the game over this.

No you aren't, quit being dramatic.

Waiting on Nya's ban theory.

You'll be *waiting* for months.

Not going to start a ban wave until they can take away a good 100 shields.

[Justuas]

Saw a long time rmt-player selling 2 accounts with the final Escutcheon shield 10,000$ each. I can bet the rmt are bot-farming the shield.

[Dzspdref]

Well the cards are a LOT rarer to drop than expected.
I was in Moh Gates Map#2 on the VT+ mobs and after 250+ kills with my THF99 with TH+9 in gear (which caps at +8 for gear, I know), I got ZERO CARDS to drop.
That was also using Aldo and Nanaa Mihgo in trusts for 2 more TH help.
Watching other people killing same exact groups of targets and telling me they are getting cards to drop about 1 out of every 4 or so kills.
Either my character is blacklisted against card drops (got every other possible item those targets could drop), or there's something VERY wrong with the drop rates.
SE, you really screwed the poop on this one. You need to open up the available drop rate, or make more targets viable options.
Want to get rid of the bots? Make spheres /ex too. Can't sell what cannot be sold and only used by the owner or /tossed. Already they cannot be NPC'ed, just add on "cannot sell". Period.