Torques and Ropes

[Singforu]

The drop rate is too low, it has nothing to do with people failing at boxes.

it has a LOT to do with people failing at boxes. The more you fail, the more likely you missed your chance at getting the item. I got the fishing rope you were looking for 4 times in one day (was doing book burn for other character). Too dismiss someone not getting their boxes open is ludicrous. If you are only opening 1 in 100 boxes do you really think your chances of getting the item is the same as opening 99 out of 100?

[geekgirl101]

Yeah I've not had any luck with any of the skill items except on a different character on a 2nd account who just got lucky. I ended up buying one with the bonanza marbles. Have yet to see the magic one drop but now it's to late as I ended up levelling all my magic skills to max trying to get it.

I would say both you guys are correct in your assessment. The drop rate of the skill/crafting items is far too low and how many times you succeed in guessing the right digits is a major factor. I would guestimate the chances of finding dungeon rares from caskets are 0.001%. Thief tools supposedly give you an extra hint but the hints aren't very helpful especially if used as a last attempt effort and if you're still having to go through several hundred boxes that's a lot of thief tools to waste.

[Singforu]

Yeah I've not had any luck with any of the skill items except on a different character on a 2nd account who just got lucky. I ended up buying one with the bonanza marbles. Have yet to see the magic one drop but now it's to late as I ended up levelling all my magic skills to max trying to get it.

I would say both you guys are correct in your assessment. The drop rate of the skill/crafting items is far too low and how many times you succeed in guessing the right digits is a major factor. I would guestimate the chances of finding dungeon rares from caskets are 0.001%. Thief tools supposedly give you an extra hint but the hints aren't very helpful especially if used as a last attempt effort and if you're still having to go through several hundred boxes that's a lot of thief tools to waste.

.001%? you're telling me 1 in 100,000 chance? no way. Even if you meant .1% which is 1 in 1,000 that is still way too high.

[Rubeus]

maybe a 1.2% chance but honestly, I think you're undermining the difficulty in getting them if you think it's "all failed boxes for 8 hours." I open probably 95% of the boxes I find, and usually that other 5% is a 4-chance chest with pointless hints until you get to 2. At 3 you could potentially break it down to a 4-digit run and then a this-or-that run and then succeed, but at 2 you'll almost always have a 50/50 with those kinds of boxes. Does that happen often? No. Is that *always* the difficult-to-obtain treasure? No. The fact is that some people report going 1/250 on these boxes, so whether or not you fail to open 10,000 times during that is completely arbitrary -- the thing was only ever gonna be in 1 of those 250 boxes, regardless of the order in which you succeeded or failed. That's how droprate works, yes? NOT killing a mob nets you no treasure in the same way as NOT opening the chest: it can't be recorded for drop data. If I kill 2,000 mobs and maybe 30% total drop brown caskets and I choose to walk right by and not open them, those don't count as "I didn't get it."

[Singforu]

people don't report accurate statistics. they will eyeball their numbers and they will count failed to open boxes. Have people do a real statistical analysis and I bet people will see a much higher drop rate than what is being reported.

[geekgirl101]

0.001% does not mean you won't get it until after 1,000 mobs. People seem to misunderstand that and assume percentages means 1 in whatever number of mobs killed.

And as I said previously, I have NO issues of guessing the correct number unless the clues given are so ambiguous that I'm left with 5 numbers at the end of all the clues.

[Rubeus]

your argument is "people don't report accurate statistics"? When there's sites that track drops by "did/didn't out of X"?

I'm not going to be trolled today, sorry.