Those two aren't mutually exclusive. It's smart to wait until the price drops. It's envious to go on the forums and call people who buy it for a higher price than you would moronic.
And it's not dumb to buy it for 20M either if you have nothing else to spend it on. There's people sitting on hundreds of millions of gil right now, what else are they gonna do with their money? If you can reasonably afford it it's never a mistake to buy.
All affirmations are true in some sense, false in some sense, meaningless in some sense, true and false in some sense, true and meaningless in some sense, false and meaningless in some sense, and true and false and meaningless in some sense.
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FFXI: Leviathan > Arcon
FFXIV: Selbina > Arcon Villiers
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